For now, the rally is on — maybe . . . (2025)

There is a proverb "May you live in interesting times." It's said to originate in China, but that seems to be folklore at best.

If you're an investor in the spring of 2025, however, you must concede these are interesting times. But probably not interesting in the way you'd like.

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The stock market has been buffeted by huge slumps and huge rallies, all related to each day's news on the U.S. tariffs and the Trump administration.

Bond yields rose all week as many foreign investors unloaded treasury securities.

Last week ended well, despite two days of losses sandwiched around President Trump's announcement on Wednesday he was suspending more tariffs and everyone should buy stocks.

When the dust settled on Friday, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 1.8% on the day and 5.7% for week. The Dow Jones industrials had rebounded by 1.6% and jumped nearly 5% for the week. The Nasdaq's weekly gain: 7.3% after rising 2.1% on Friday. But the indexes are still down on the year because of the slump the week before and overall tariff uncertainty.

Technology stocks led the rally; energy was the weakest sector.

Crude oil ended the week at $61.54 per barrel, down 6.2% on the week. Retail gas prices were at $3.189 a gallon nationally on Sunday, per AAA, up 4.8% on the year. The year-ago price was $3.633.

A rally ahead? It depends

Stocks could rally again this coming week. Futures trading Sunday suggested a decent open on Monday

Affecting everything will be the Trump Administration's messaging.

The buoyant futures open slipped after Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Meet the Press on Sunday that the tariff suspensions may not last forever because the administration is considering a separate set of tariffs for these sets of products.

"NOBODY is getting 'off the hook'" on tariffs, Trump himself said in a social-media post Sunday.

When these new tariffs are unveiled is unclear. So, maybe there's some short-term gains, and then we'll see.

The economy is flirting with a recession, hedge fund founder Ray Dalio said Sunday, and many economists have cut their outlooks since the president's April 2 announcement of shock-and-awe tariffs sent markets on a roller-coaster ride.

First-quarter earnings estimates are positive, and markets got some good news Friday when Trump suspended most of the tariffs on mobile phones, semiconductors and related products exported from China.

The big winners from the decision were Apple (AAPL) , which was up 5.2% on the week (but down nearly 21% on the year) and Nvidia (NVDA) , up 17.6% on the week (but still off 17.8% in 2025).

Apple was especially exposed to China tariffs because it manufactures 87% of its iPhones, nearly 80% of iPads and 60% of its Macintosh computers there. Estimates suggest more than 1 million Chinese workers work on Apple-related products, The Wall Street Journal said.

Apple has been moving production to India and Vietnam.

To move all that production to the United States, as President Trump wants, would require massive investments in new plant and equipment and worker training.

Nvidia's win comes because the order lets the company sell its H20 graphics chips to Chinese customers. The administration had been thinking of blocking sales of the H20s. It already is blocking the sale of Nvidia's most powerful units, the Blackwell.

Where things stand

If there's any good in markets now, it's this: It is not oversold. During selloffs, the relative strength indexes for the major indexes, including the Nasdaq-100 Index, had fallen well into the twenties, an oversold signal. RSI is a measure of how fast a price is moving compared with prices before. An RSI in the low 20s is a big buy signal.

Thanks to Wednesday's and Friday's rallies, the RSIs moved into the 40s.

According to Barchart.com, Friday's stock trading ended with just 39 stocks at 52-week highs and 204 stocks at 52-week lows. Of the stocks at the highs, 24 were gold or gold-related stocks.

Gold closed Friday at a record $3,255 per troy ounce, up 23.3% in 2025. The U.S. dollar is down 7.7% this year. It rose 6.5% between the Nov. 5 election and a peak of 110.18 on Jan. 13. It's off 9% since.

More Nvidia:

• Bank of America offers Nvidia stock forecast amid tariffs
• Amazon directly targets Nvidia with bold new strategy
• Analyst unveils startling Nvidia stock forecast amid tariffs

Earnings in a holiday week

The parade of first-quarter earnings continues this week. Outside tariffs— the nightmare that keeps on giving—the focus will be on financial institutions and six Dow components. These are led by:

Monday

• Goldman Sachs (GS) , expected to earn $12.27 a share on revenue of $14.7 billion. Earnings gain: 6% from a year ago. revenue growth 3.5%.

Tuesday

• Bank of America (BAC) . Earnings estimate: 85 cents, up 2.4%. Revenue: $26.5 billion, up 1.9%.
• Citigroup (C) . Earnings: $1.90, up 20.3%. Revenue: $20.9 billion, up 1%.
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) . Earnings $2.67, down 1.5%. Revenue: $22 billion, up 3%.

Wednesday

• Dutch-based chip-equipment maker ASML Holding (ASML) .Earnings estimate: $5.76, up 70.4%. Revenue: $7.8 billion, up 35%.
• Pharmaceutical company Abbott Laboratories (ABT) . Earnings: $1.08, up 9.2%. Revenue: $10.4 billion, up 4.5%.
• Insurance giant Travelers (TRV) . Earnings: 81 cents, down 81%. Mostly because of storm and fire damage.

Thursday

• Semiconductor manufacturing giant Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) . Earnings: $1.82, up 31.9%. Revenue: $23.9 billion, up 26.7%.
• Netflix (NFLX) . Earnings: $5,73, up 8.5%. Revenue: $10.5 billion, up 121%.
• American Express (AXP) . earnings: $3.50, up 5.1%. Revenue: 16.9 billion, up 7%.
• Financial conglomerate Blackstone (BX) . Earnings: $1.17 up 17.4%. Revenue: $2.95 billion, up 15.7%.
• Health insurance giant UnitedHealth (UNH) .Earnings: $7.31, up 5.8%. Revenue: $111.6 billion, up 11.8%.

Because of Good Friday on April 18, U.S. stock markets will be closed.